Happy...new year! Idk about you but I am feeling recharged and ready to hit the ground running tomorrow. I will keep this short because it's a holiday but wanted to hit you with a few thoughts as we prep for the new year.

You've probably seen a lot of "in vs out for 2024" and I thought I'd do one for the DTC industry as I see it. I'll leave a bit of context for some that are important. Let me know if you agree.

IN

• Contribution Margin Dollars - As a marketer, it should be the main thing you obsess over
• Incrementality - Stop caring what an ad platform says. Every dollar you spend should be held accountable. Does it drive real impact?
• Creative Diversity - AI is here to stay. AI creative is pretty bad still, but the effect it will have on media buying is here to stay. You need to be producing drastically different types of creatives to reach different pockets of people.
• Geo Lift Testing - Geo testing is the best way to measure incrementality.
• Youtube Ads - Along the same lines. I think there is going to be a rise in DTC brands scaling Youtube Ads, profitably.
• Performance Based Creative Agencies - Anyone who is worth their salt making ad creatives is going to charge on a % of spend model.
• Upper Funnel Meta Ads - This year, I think a lot of brands will crack running video view or reach campaigns on Meta which will help them grow past what conversion ads can get them alone.

Out

• Performance-Based Media Buying - On Meta at least, you simply won't be able to command the fees on media buying along. It's just too commoditized and you're not offering enough value unless you're doing creative as well.
• Attribution - Caring about what an ad channel says it drove is so 2023. I'm not saying you shouldn't care about it, but wait yes I am.
• TikTok - I am not bullish on TikTok. Shops is ruining the platform,and look at user growth . It's way down from the peak.
• Cost Cap Arguments - Look, I like cost caps and bid caps. But I don't like dogmatism. You can succeed with many different strategies. Don't be dogmatic, and focus on what works in all scenarios, like a great product and great ads.
• Variable Pricing For SAAS - You are going to see a push back against overly priced software this year, if you haven't already. Most tools are commoditized as well, so people are going to get pissed at the tools increasing prices or claiming a % of sales. If I wanted to make a decent biz, I would just "copy" one that did the same but charge a flat, capped fee instead of a variable fee.

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Tomorrow feels like the first day of school. It's exciting, but also a bit nerve-wracking. Hope everyone has a great 2024!

-Cody

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